为什么说日本经济自1995年以来没有增长

William Tait MacDonald, Over a decade and counting in the land of the rising sun

This is an interesting question, because it underlines some major problems with the way that modern economies are valued.
这是一个有趣的问题,因为它强调了现代经济估值方式的一些主要问题。

In industrial economies calculating the value of an economy is simple – take the value of the items sold in the country, plus the value of items exported and you have a number.
在工业经济中,计算一个经济体的价值很简单——取在该国销售的商品的价值,加上出口商品的价值,你就可以得到一个数字。

But the modern world is much more complex than that, especially for post-industrial economies. Let’s take a real situation, the iphone. It was designed by Apple in Silicon valley, so you’d think the US economy would be cheering, right? But actually it is making the US economy look very bad. Why? Let me explain.
但是现代世界比这复杂得多,尤其是对于后工业经济体。让我们来看一个真实的情况,iphone。它是由硅谷的苹果公司设计的,所以你会认为美国经济会令人振奋,对吗?但实际上,这让美国经济看起来非常糟糕。为什么?让我解释一下。

The design is emailed to a factory in China where the phone is made for pennies on the dollar, and the exported to the USA with a fat price tag of hundreds of dollars. From a balance of trade perspective it looks like the USA’s balance of trade is terrible! They’re importing these valuable iphones by the bucketload, but not selling much to China!
该设计通过电子邮件发送到中国的一家工厂,那里的手机是一美元一便士的,出口到美国的手机标价高达数百美元。从贸易平衡的角度来看,美国的贸易平衡似乎很糟糕!他们正在分时段进口这些有价值的iphones,但对中国销售不多!

… ahh, but you’re probably asking, “Wait, surely Apple is making the difference between the production cost and the sales price, right? So that must help the U.S. economy, right?”
……啊,但你可能会问,“等等,苹果肯定在生产成本和销售价格之间做出了贡献,对吗?所以这一定有助于美国经济,对吗?”

But that money isn’t necessarily showing up on their U.S. books, because Apple is a global corporation and has a very specific allergy common to all huge corporations, namely an allergy to paying tax. So yes, a portion of that money does appear on Apple’s books, but they make it as small as possible because US taxes are much higher than, for example, countries where you pay no tax. What doesn’t help is that countries like the U.S. actually charge additional tax on bringing foreign money back into the country (Apple Leads These Companies With Massive Overseas Cash Repatriation Tax Bills)… so companies just don’t do it.
但这笔钱不一定会出现在他们的美国账本上,因为苹果是一家全球性公司,对所有大公司都有一种非常特殊的过敏,即对纳税过敏。所以是的,一部分钱确实出现在苹果的账本上,但是他们会尽可能的少,因为美国的税收比你不用缴税的国家高得多。没有帮助的是,像美国这样的国家实际上对把外国资金带回国内征收额外的税(苹果公司用巨额海外现金返还税引领这些公司)……所以公司就是不这么做。

So this naturally makes the country look like its economy is terrible! They’re not producing much inside the country, not exporting much, and not bringing money back home….
所以这自然会让这个国家看起来经济很糟糕!他们在国内生产不多,出口不多,也不把钱带回家…

Yet mysteriously these huge corporations are flourishing (despite beating their breasts and wailing about how they’re operating at a loss – year after year after year without ever going under).
然而神秘的是,这些大公司正在蓬勃发展(尽管他们捶胸顿足,哀叹他们是如何在亏损中运营的——年复一年,从未倒闭)。

Japan’s economy, which has a huge service sector, is a prime example of this phenomenon. Services, ideas, designs and other intellectual property are generated in huge quantities, but the tax rate is high so just enough money trickles back in to hit the sweet spot on maintaining the company and investor confidence while minimising tax.
拥有庞大服务部门的日本经济就是这种现象的一个典型例子。服务、创意、设计和其他知识产权大量产生,但税率很高,所以只有足够的钱流回来,才能在保持公司和投资者信心的同时将税收降至最低。

Japan is doing fine economically, but much of it is invisible to the bean counters trying to figure out the value of the economy, and this is deliberate, because if the money was easy to count it would be easy to tax.
日本在经济上做得很好,但对于试图计算经济价值的会计来说,大部分都是看不见的,这是有意为之的,因为如果钱容易计算,就容易征税。

And there you have it. The problem isn’t that Japan’s economy is in decline, it is quite simply that all our measures of economic power, size and value are based on an industrial era logic that simply doesn’t work in a post-industrial world.
就在这里。问题不在于日本经济正在衰退,而在于我们对经济实力、规模和价值的所有衡量都是基于工业时代的逻辑,这在后工业世界根本行不通。

This is no great secret by the way, it is common knowledge, in fact I recall hearing a segment about it on BBC 4’s “More or Less” recently – a slightly different facet of the problem, but the same general issue. I looked but I can’t find the specific episode, however I do highly recommend listening to all the episodes… then when you find it you can tell me 😉
顺便说一句,这不是什么大秘密,这是众所周知的,事实上我记得最近在英国广播公司4台的“或多或少”节目中听到过一段关于这个问题的报道——这个问题的一个稍微不同的方面,但却是同样的普遍问题。我看了,但是我找不到具体的剧集,但是我强烈建议你听所有的剧集……然后当你找到的时候你可以告诉我;)

……………………

Hernanday Oleary, Mba from Harvard, undergrad in business adminstration

Japan’s economy was centered around window guidance. Japan had billions in exports and surplus foreign dollars which they had re-invested in their own economy using the banks to direct loans into commercial industries which were export focused. In the 1990s and 1980s it was not uncommon to run a business who should have only qualified for a $2 million loan and only needed $2 million but got $6 or $8 million because the banks HAD to meet a lending quota so were pressured to over lend. Obviously this over time resulted in bad loans. However the real reason Japan has stopped growing economically is quiet simple, the US told it stop growing in the 1990s as US had felt threatened by Japan’s growth once it got to a certain level. The US made it end its window guidance policy and directed economy from bureaucrats who had made Japan’s economy grow the way it did.
1972/5000
日本经济以窗口导向为中心。日本有数十亿美元的出口和盈余外汇,它们利用银行将贷款直接投向以出口为重点的商业行业,将其重新投资于本国经济。在20世纪90年代和80年代,经营一家本应只获得200万美元贷款、只需要200万美元但却获得600万美元或800万美元贷款的企业并不少见,因为银行必须达到贷款限额,所以被迫过度放贷。显然,随着时间的推移,这导致了不良贷款。然而,日本经济停止增长的真正原因很简单,美国告诉日本在20世纪90年代停止增长,因为一旦日本经济增长达到一定水平,美国就会感到受到威胁。美国让它结束了窗口引导政策,并从官僚那里引导经济,官僚们让日本经济像现在这样增长。

This may seem unrealistic. In 1965 Japan’s economy was about the same size as Canada’s overall. By 1980 it had a 1 trillion dollar economy compared to USA 2.8 trillion dollar economy. By 1990 Japan’s economy had tripled to 3.1 trillion compared to the US doubling to about 5.9 trillion. By 1995 Japan had moved up to 5.3 trillion compared to US 7.6 trillion In the span of 5 years, Japan added almost as much production in 5 years than the entire German economy of 2.5 trillion (which by the way added East Germany over this period). At that high growth rate Japan would have surpassed USA economically.
这似乎不现实。1965年,日本的经济规模与加拿大的整体规模大致相同。到1980年,它的经济规模为1万亿美元,而美国的经济规模为2.8万亿美元。到1990年,日本经济增长了两倍,达到3.1万亿,而美国增长了一倍,达到约5.9万亿。到1995年,日本的产量从5年的7.6万亿美元上升到了5.3万亿美元。在5年的时间里,日本的产量几乎相当于整个德国经济的2.5万亿美元(顺便提一下,在这段时间里,德国的产量增加了)。以这样高的增长率,日本在经济上将超过美国。

USA had pressured Japan to “liberalize” its economy and let its bad loans fail where the USA bailed out its own banks when they had a similar crisis in 2008. So Japan economy went down from $5.3 trillion to 4.7 trillion dollars between 1995 and 2000. Japan had larger reserves than the IMF in the 1990s and USA told it don’t bailout Thailand, make Thailand take loans from the IMF because they did not want Japan to have more control or power over the region.
美国曾向日本施压,要求其“放开”经济,让其不良贷款失败。2008年,当日本银行遭遇类似危机时,美国救助了它们自己的银行。所以日本经济在1995年到2000年间从5.3万亿美元下降到4.7万亿美元。日本在20世纪90年代的外汇储备比国际货币基金组织还多,美国告诉它不要救助泰国,让泰国接受国际货币基金组织的贷款,因为他们不希望日本对该地区拥有更多的控制权或权力。

That is why Japan’s economy went bad.
这就是日本经济变坏的原因。

原文:https://www.quora.com/Why-has-Japans-economy-not-grown-since-1995

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