特朗普说贸易战很容易打赢,真的是这样么?

就在上周,看起来华盛顿和北京接近达成协议。但在星期五早午午后一分钟,特朗普政府将价值2000亿美元的中国进口产品的关税税率从10%提高到25%。总统通过推特说,“关税将使我们的国家变得更强大,而不是更弱。”

关税将使我们的国家更加强大,而不是更弱。只是坐下来观看!与此同时,中国不应该在最后一刻与美国重新谈判。这不是奥巴马政府,也不是昏昏欲睡的乔政府,让中国逃脱“谋杀!”

– 唐纳德J.特朗普(@realDonaldTrump),2019年5月10日
当中国呼吁对协议草案进行重大修改时,贸易谈判破裂。

“我们的交易非常接近,然后他们开始重新谈判。我们不能这样,“特朗普星期四说。

北京拒绝了总统的主张。

特朗普一直试图减少美中贸易逆差 ,并让中国削减国家补贴。特朗普政府还在解决长期存在的问题,例如 为希望在中国开展业务的美国公司强制转让技术。

总统周四也重申了一项声明,即他经常提出的关于谁支付这些增加的进口税的问题:“主要由中国支付,顺便说一下,而不是由我们支付。很多人试图以不同的方向引导它。这真的是付出的,最终,它主要由中国支付。“最新的学术研究争议。

“我们发现,关税完全转嫁给了美国消费者,”哥伦比亚大学的经济学家大卫?温斯坦说。

他和其他经济学家发现,当中国进口的屋顶瓦片,高尔夫球袋,肥皂,棒球手套或其他成千上万的物品加入最初10%的税
时……美国消费者最终为此付出了代价。

相关: 谁支付特朗普的关税?中国还是美国购物者?

中国企业决定:尽量保持市场份额,降低出口价格,有效地吸收美国关税成本,或者将进口关税成本转嫁给中国制造的美国买家。

由于美国消费者坚持持有这项法案,因此像约翰霍格这样的小企业主陷入困境。Hoge是Sea Eagle Boats的共同所有者,SeaEagle Boats是一家位于纽约长岛的家族企业,设计和销售硬塑料,充气艇和皮划艇。大多数都是在中国建造的。

当Hoge从中国进口的产品受到边境10%的关税打击时,他提高了价格。销量下降。Hoge表示,关税“似乎正在影响”业务,但也是一个寒冷潮湿的春天,这可能会影响事务。不过,他表示25%的关税将是“可怕的”。

“我们将失去很多利润,我们将不得不削减成本,”Hoge说。“我认为将要发生的事情是,对消费者的影响将导致优先顺序的转移,如果日常生活必需品的价格提高25%,那么将钱投入休闲产品的倾向就会减少。我们卖的船。“

最坏的情况:Hoge说他可能不得不裁掉他的28名员工。

然后,至少从美国的角度来看,贸易等式的另一面是:企业试图出口到中国。当特朗普政府对中国进口产品征收关税时,北京做了所有国家在贸易战中所做的事情 – 他们以自己的关税进行报复,特别针对美国农民。

美国伊利诺伊州樱桃谷的厄尔·威廉姆斯(Earl Williams)等全国最大的大豆生产州的大豆种植者实际上被排除在中国这个最大的出口市场之外。随着供应增加和需求减少,大豆价格暴跌。

“我认为大多数粮食生产商都说没有利润,”威廉姆斯说,“这些价格的损失有多糟糕?”

威廉姆斯说他受到了双重打击。他无法将大豆出口到中国,进口钢铁关税增加了他作为消费者的成本。“我们使用大量机械,粮仓,使用钢铁涂料的建筑物。这些直接打击了我的钱包。“

威廉姆斯对总统感到沮丧,并表示单方面对中国实施的关税是解决贸易争端的错误方式。

“你永远不会赢……你失去了一辈子要发展的市场。而且没有多少选择来取代中国对大豆需求的市场。“

大豆农场主伯爵威廉姆斯
“你永远不会赢,”威廉姆斯说。“你失去了需要一辈子才能发展的市场。而且没有多少选择来取代中国对大豆需求的市场。
“对于受美中贸易战影响的人和企业来说,有一条好消息:新的关税上涨并不适用于已经在运输中和集装箱船上运输的中国进口商品。

美国公司也在美国入境口岸支付关税,并且像船只卖家John Hoge那样购买一些人。

“我们在接下来的几天内没有任何订单发货,并且需要大约一个月才能完成,所以它将在大约六到八周内开始咬人,”Hoge说。“但我相信在那之前会有一笔交易。”

总的来说,Hoge担心我们已经忘记了这种交易“从根本上说是一种合作行为,从根本上说是互惠互利的……无论需要修复哪些系统,我们都不应该拆掉整个系统来调整一些事情。在边缘。“

许多贸易专家表示,如果美国和中国达成框架协议,那将不是特朗普承诺的 “史诗般的”贸易协议。尽管总统说,经济学家大卫温斯坦说贸易战实际上是“ 不容易赢。“

当一个国家(美国)几乎与它所经营的每个国家的贸易损失数十亿美元时,贸易战很好,而且很容易获胜。例如,当我们与某个国家相比减少1000亿美元并且他们变得可爱时,不再进行交易 – 我们赢得了大奖。这很简单!

– 唐纳德J.特朗普(@realDonaldTrump),2018年3月2日
“这些谈判非常复杂。中国重组其知识产权制度是一件非常复杂的事情,即使他们有最好的意图。美国法律复杂,中国法律复杂,”温斯坦说。

此外,中国不希望显得疲软,在美国的压力下屈服。

“所以,他们有他们的ha ha,我们有他们的骚扰,在政治上这些事情变得非常非常根深蒂固,”温斯坦说。

特朗普已经威胁要对另外3250亿美元的中国进口商品征收新的关税。如果发生这种情况,美国从中国进口的几乎所有东西都要缴纳25%的进口税。就其本身而言,中国正在采取进一步对策的威胁。

Just last week, it looked like Washington and Beijing were close to a deal. But one minute after the stroke of
midnight early Friday, the Trump administration raised tariff rates from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of
Chinese imports. The president said, via tweet, “Tariffs will make our country much stronger, not weaker.”

Tariffs will make our Country MUCH STRONGER, not weaker. Just sit back and watch! In the meantime, China
should not renegotiate deals with the U.S. at the last minute. This is not the Obama Administration, or the
Administration of Sleepy Joe, who let China get away with “murder!”

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 10, 2019
Trade negotiations fell apart when China called for substantial changes to the draft agreement.

“We were getting very close to a deal, then they started to renegotiate the deal. We can’t have that,” Trump
said Thursday.

Beijing rejects the president’s assertion.

Trump has been trying to decrease the US-China trade deficit and also get China to cut back on state subsidies. The
Trump administration is also tackling long-standing issues, like the forced transfer of technology for American
companies that want to do business in China.

The president also repeated a claim Thursday, one he often makes, about who is paying these increased import
taxes: “Paid for mostly by China, by the way, not by us. A lot of people try and steer it in a different direction. It’s
really paid, ultimately, it’s paid for largely by China.”

The latest academic research disputes that.

“What we found is that the tariffs are passed on completely to US consumers.”

David Weinstein, economist at Columbia University
“What we found is that the tariffs are passed on completely to US consumers,” said economist David Weinstein at
Columbia University.

He and other economists found that when the initial 10% tax was added to Chinese-imported roof tiles, golf bags,
soap, baseball gloves or thousands of other items … American consumers ended up paying for it.

Related: Who’s paying for Trump’s tariffs? China, or American shoppers?

Chinese firms had a decision to make: try to preserve market share and lower prices on exports, effectively
absorbing the costs of the US tariffs, or pass along the costs of import duties to US buyers of Chinese-made
products.

With American consumers stuck holding the bill, it’s left small-business owners like John Hoge in a bind. Hoge is a
co-owner of Sea Eagle Boats, a family-run business on Long Island, New York, that designs and sells hard plastic,
inflatable boats and kayaks. Most are built in China.

When Hoge’s imports from China were hit with the 10% tariff at the border, he raised his prices. And sales
dropped. Hoge said tariffs “seem to be affecting” business, but also that it’s been a cold, wet spring, which
could be impacting matters. Still, he said that a 25% tariff will be “terrible.”

“We will lose a lot of profit, and we will have to cut costs,” said Hoge. “I think what’s going to happen is that
the effect on the consumer will result in a shift of priorities, that if the necessities of daily life get 25% more
expensive, then there will be less of a tendency to put money into recreational items like the boats we’re selling.”

Worst case: Hoge said he might have to layoff some of his 28 employees.

Then, there’s the other side of the trade equation, from the American perspective at least: businesses trying to
export to China. When the Trump administration put tariffs on Chinese imports, Beijing did what all nations do in a
trade war — they retaliated with tariffs of their own, particularly aimed at US farmers.

Soybean farmers like Earl Williams in Cherry Valley, Illinois, the nation’s largest soy-producing state, were effectively
shut out of China, their largest export market. With increased supply and less demand, the price of soybeans
plummeted.

“I think most grain producers are saying there’s no profit,” said Williams. “How bad are the losses going to be at
these prices?”

Williams said he’s being hit with a double whammy. He can’t export his soybeans to China and import tariffs on
steel are adding to his costs as a consumer. “We use a lot of machinery, grain bins, buildings that use steel
coatings. Those are a direct hit to my pocketbook.”

Williams is frustrated with the president and said tariffs applied unilaterally on China are the wrong way to settle
trade disputes.

“You never win … You lose markets that took a lifetime to develop. And there aren’t that many options to
replace a market such as the Chinese demand for our soybeans.”

Earl Williams, soybean farmer
“You never win,” said Williams. “You lose markets that took a lifetime to develop. And there aren’t that many
options to replace a market such as the Chinese demand for our soybeans.”

There is one sliver of good news for people and businesses being impacted by the US-China trade war: The new
tariff hike doesn’t apply to Chinese imports that are already in transit and out on container ships.

American companies also pay the duties at the US port of entry, and that buys people like boat seller John Hoge a
little bit of time.

“We don’t have any orders shipping in the next few days, and it takes about a month to get over, so it will start
to bite in about six to eight weeks,” Hoge said. “But I’m confident that there will be a deal before that.”

On the whole, Hoge worries that we’ve forgotten that trade is “fundamentally an act of cooperation and
fundamentally mutually beneficial … Whatever things that need to be fixed about the system, we shouldn’t tear
down the entire system to tweak a few things around the edges.”

Many trade experts say that if the US and China can reach a framework agreement, it won’t be the “epic” trade
deal that Trump is promising. And despite what the president says, economist David Weinstein said trade wars are
in fact, “not easy to win.”

When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with,
trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get
cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 2, 2018
“These are very complicated negotiations. And for China to reorganize its intellectual property regime is a very
complicated undertaking, even if they have the best of intentions. US law is complicated, Chinese law complicated,
” Weinstein said.

Also, China doesn’t want to appear weak, to have buckled under US pressure.

“And so, they have their hackles up, we have our hackles up, and politically these things get very, very entrenched,
” said Weinstein.

Trump is already threatening to put fresh tariffs on another $325 billion in Chinese imports. If that were to happen,
virtually everything the US imports from China would be subject to a 25% import tax. For its part, China is
threatening with further countermeasures of its own.

文章来源:https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-05-10/trump-says-trade-wars-are-easy-win-theyre-not